Laminate,PCB Industries Show Smooth Growth
Semiconductor, PCB and laminate demand, unsurprisingly, are ultimately dependent on the production of electronics equipment and, again, BPA monitors the production trends (see the graph below). In addition to canvassing the views of the industry, BPA also uses leading indicators, which, over the last twenty years, have been a good fit with PCB and laminate demand.
The chart below shows smoothed growth rates i.e. 6/12. This process uses a six month moving average. This smoothed curve helps to identify what BPA considers are the critical turning points–e.g. when a market starts to slow, it is an early indicator of a market contraction. It should be noted that the downward slope is not negative growth, only a slowing of growth until it goes below the zero line.
Conversely, on the downward dip, the turning point will indicate a slowing of the rate of contraction, which can indicate a future return of growth. In general, for the PCB industry, this process takes six to nine months. BPA publishes this information regularly for the worldwide market, every three months, and an example is set out below.
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